My brain asplodes!

[elfs]

I've been trying to figure out The Monty Hall Paradox. So far, the Bayes Theorem explanation holds the most weight and makes the most sense, but moving out of the purely mathematical aspects of Bayesian math to the real world makes my brain asplode.

There's a lovely simulator with tallies on-line as well.

Comments

[elfs.livejournal.com]

The puzzle doesn't work if the host doesn't know where the car is, because the objective of the host is to get you to pick the car. If the host always has to open one door (remember, that's the distraction that confuses everyone), he has to know that the door he's opening is not the one with the car behind it. That's what it took me forever to grok.

Sorry about your dad. Maybe someday I'll reconcile with mine, too. At least I haven't gotten any tattoos, and I took out my dick piercing years ago.