My brain asplodes!

[elfs]

I've been trying to figure out The Monty Hall Paradox. So far, the Bayes Theorem explanation holds the most weight and makes the most sense, but moving out of the purely mathematical aspects of Bayesian math to the real world makes my brain asplode.

There's a lovely simulator with tallies on-line as well.

Comments

[kenshardik]

I remember showing this article to my father, a mathematician, when it was published. He disagreed with Savant, while I agreed with her. He got VERY upset with me because he felt that my not agreeing with him was a major sign of disrespect. (My father had a temper and would get angry quickly if he thought you were ignoring his advice or disagreed with something where he had knowledge.) He eventually came to the same conclusion as stated in the article - that if the host doesn't know where the car is, then the odds are the same, but if the host does know, then you should switch.

It's still one of those "dark memories" of a time when my father was pissed off at me. He died before I ever got a chance to tell him what a prick he could be at times like that, and how hurtful his reactions were. Ah well, at least I have spiffy tattoos now.

[elfs.livejournal.com]

The puzzle doesn't work if the host doesn't know where the car is, because the objective of the host is to get you to pick the car. If the host always has to open one door (remember, that's the distraction that confuses everyone), he has to know that the door he's opening is not the one with the car behind it. That's what it took me forever to grok.

Sorry about your dad. Maybe someday I'll reconcile with mine, too. At least I haven't gotten any tattoos, and I took out my dick piercing years ago.