Is it The Future yet?

[elfs]

So, it's December, 2007. I have the 2001 British Telecomm white paper "The Technology Timeline" here, and let's see if their futurists got anything right at all. Here's the 2007 list:

• Artificial Inteligence & Artificial Life
  • Domestic appliances with personality and talking head interface
  • Systems to understand text and drawings (e.g. patent information)
  • People have some virtual friends but don't know which ones
  • AI students
• Business & education
  • Lifestyle brands dominate
  • Network based learning causes polarisation in classes - streaming is essential
  • Global classes used for multicultural immersion
• Environment & countryside
  • Virtual farming co-operatives
• Home & office
  • Emotional objects, switches etc around home
• Life & leisure in a cyberspace world
  • People reduce tax liability by being partially paid in information products
  • On line voting in UK
• Materials & electronic devices
  • Material with refractive index variable by 0.1 in electric or magnetic field
  • Self organising adaptive integrated circuits
• Processing, memory and storage
  • Optical neuro-computers
  • Quantum computer
• Robotics
  • Totally automated factories
• Security, law, war
  • Data mining use in trials
  • First net war between cyber-communities
  • Remote override capability on planes
• Shopping & money
  • Paper and coins largely replaced by electronic cash
  • Shops start being paid by manufacturers as try-on outlets
  • Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street
  • Next generation space telescope launch
• Transport & travel
  • All new cars fitted with positioning systems as standard
  • Portable translation device for simple conversation
  • Kaleidoscopic clothes using materials with embedded pigment micro-capsules

I might have virtual friends, but I don't know of any AI students yet. Global classes is a joke, there aren't widespread "emotion sensitive" houses, and both quantum computing and neurocomputing are still gleams in the eyes of researchers. Data mining in law cases has happened, not all cars have positioning black boxes, and portable translation boxes are still a few years out.

Comments

[resonant.livejournal.com]

"Virtual farming co-operatives"

Does this include WoW gold farmers?

[(Anonymous)]

To be honest, I have to think that anyone who could come up with that list, targeted six years out in 2001, didn't have a clue about what any of them required.

[rand0m1.livejournal.com]

Have to admit, paper and coin money is being swiftly replaced by the good old debit card. I very rarely use cash.

[gromm.livejournal.com]

First net war between cyber-communities

Yup, that's World of Warcraft right there.

But I don't think that that's what he meant. Maybe he means botnets.

[(Anonymous)]

I personally wouldn't put much faith in predictions made by a telephone company anyhow, and I don't feel predictions like that are entirely practical to begin with.

Besides, I'm sure they must have had ulterior motives for doing this paper. Not sure why the hell they would bother otherwise.