Humans are terrible at risk assessment

[elfs]

After the big worry yesterday over compact fluorescent bulbs, I've had myself spanked again. It turns out the story was being flogged by Steve Milloy, a well-known (at least, in the science media community) junk science advocate who also has served up some of the weirdest "there is no such thing as global warming" literature ever seen.

As PZ Meyers points out, the total environmental mercury impact from a single CFC bulb is less than that of an incadescent bulb. A CFC has 4 milligrams of mercury and uses enough electricity in its lifetime that, if your power is coal-fired (and almost all of the East Coast is coal-fired), it will generate another 2.4 milligrams. An incandescent uses enough eletricity to produce about 10 milligrams, or 3.6 milligrams more.

As it turns out, the original article goes to great lengths to emphasize that the risk of mercury poisoning from CFCs is very minimal, that there are things you can do in your own home to minimize the risk, and yes, you can dispose of the bulbs properly.

On the other hand, the human brain will turn this over and argue that you know where four grams of mercury is, in your light socket, whereas the ten grams are "just in the atmosphere, somewhere over there," and they're not about to poison you. Well, neither is the mercury in your lightbulb.

[Edited: I originally had 'grams'; it's 'milligrams of mercury'. Thanks to blaisepascal for pointing out the typo.]

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

i still see the greatest problem being disposal. most packaging implies you should "dispose of properly" but most people don't know what that means. furthermore, some people don't have access to a hazardous waste drop off facility. we have to keep ours for a year since the county offers one day for collection. then we have to wait in a ridiculously long line of cars at the facility (cause all those cars idling for over an hour is great for the environment.) i figure it's like batteries. aside from my uu church collecting them, i don't know anyone who disposes of their batteries correctly, they all chuck 'em in the trash. so if we assume people have been disposing of their new compact fluorescents in the same way...

i dunno about the newer plastic coated bulbs, but we broke what seemed like a billion of the original glass spiral bulbs when we first started to convert. (talking to other moms i found out that my kids weren't the only ones prone to knocking over lamps and break many a cfc bulb. they were just so freaking fragile!) sadly we would have to multiply that 4 gram content significantly to realize the amount that has been spilled in this household.

[solarbird]

i don't know anyone who disposes of their batteries correctly, they all chuck 'em in the trash
Hiya! Now you do. ^_^

(The town we live in has quarterly strange-object recycle days, and they take things like batteries. So we store 'em in a bin and haul them down every three to six months or so.)

[intrepid-reason.livejournal.com]

Actually most city/county/state facilities are required to have hazardous waste disposal, I don't see why it should be a problem to have a collection site there. Just my 7 cents.

[shunra.livejournal.com]

My problem was the source you quoted: canada.com has been the source of any number of right-originated scare stories.

About a year ago, one such story got me sufficiently riled up to seek out all the information needed to discredit it. Remember the story that broke about how Iran had allegedly passed a law that was going to require its Jewish population wear yellow stars of david? That was a canada.com story. It was also entirely wrong; *no* such proposal was ever made in Iran, nor was it every passed as a law in their Majlis (parliament).

At the time, the story made huge waves in the media (despite being entirely untrue, which would have been quite easy to verify). Reputable sources quoted Canada.com, and it took quite an effort to bring people's attention to the total foundationlessness of the story (which was verified by all people reporting from Iran and by a Jewish, Israeli, Iran-expert). It turned out that those newspapers are owned by one Conrad Black, a Candian who owns some political media worldwide and who was in trouble with the U.S. gov't over embezzlement from publicly traded corporations (or so said the allegations. I have not consulted primary sources to verify this). The rumor on the net was that he allowed his newspaper to be used for floating test balloons on matters that would roughly be considered to be in the province of the right wing.

With that background, anything that says "beware of a pro-enviroment step because it is bad for you" that comes from canada.com is extra-suspicious.

I appreciate the legwork you did on finding out why it was wrong and writing about it, though. Thanks.

[elfs.livejournal.com]

I don't want to give the impression that I'm light or lenient either way. As this little back-and-forth shows the issue has strong proponents on both sides. There are two CFC bulbs in my house right now and there will probably be more in the future. But incandescent bulbs do put off a warmer and more eye-friendly light than anything else on the market, and I'll continue to use them in my dining room, drawing room, and Omaha's sewing room.

The office, naturally, will remain as dark as an Ogre's cave.

[memegarden.livejournal.com]

I just saw test results in some magazine for several fluorescents and one control incandescent, in which, among other ratings, they were surprised to find the incandescent rated lowest in light quality. Fluorescents have come a long way.

[memegarden.livejournal.com]

Found it--it's the May Popular Mechanics.

Light comparison

[cadetstar.livejournal.com]

Quick question on the article...

Did they simply rate light output or actual quality of light? Most important to me is color temperature which the fluorescents, including CFCs, do not seem to have nailed compared to an incandescent.

Also, one of my professors in college (who was a lighting specialist), said that fluorescents of all types do not oscillate their intensity like an incandescent will (due to the 60 Hz of the power cycle) since they are gas-fired. This leads to increased eye strain and fatigue.

-Michael

Re: Light comparison

[memegarden.livejournal.com]

They did both. The fluorescents all won on subjectively-assessed light quality.

Re: Light comparison

[elfs.livejournal.com]

What color of fluorescent did you choose for the open spaces like the kitchen? I'd like to find the best one just because I don't want everything to have that factory floor pasty-white look.

[blaisepascal]

Quick note for correction purposes... 4g of mercury is quite a lot. Most CFL bulbs have only 4mg (and generating the power to run them releases another 2.6mg, compared to 10mg for incandescent).

The graph in the article you link to is mg/Hg, not g/Hg.

[elfs.livejournal.com]

Fixed, thank you!

[kengr]

There's still a reference to grams in the paragraph just before your "edited" bit.

Junk science on both sides

[danlyke.livejournal.com]

Yabbut...

The "electricity causes twice the mercury emissions for incandescents" graph comes from the National Electrical Manufacturer's Association factsheet on CFLs (http://www.nema.org/lamprecycle/epafactsheet-cfl.pdf), and as far as I can tell from the wording it assumes 100% of the power comes from coal fired plants, and a 5 year life span on the CFL.

But so far as I can tell, only about 56% of electrical power comes from coal fired plants (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/prim2/chapter3.html), and personal experience puts 2 years as an far outside life on a CFL, every time I try to introduce 'em into our house (and I've tried various different brands at various different price points) they're fine for a while, then they get dim and my sweety swaps 'em out for incandescents 'cause she's bumping into furniture and tripping over stuff.

So I'm definitely not convinced.

I keep wanting to believe, and I've spent at least a hundred or two bucks on Compact Flourescents so far trying to convince myself that they're the way to go, but I just this morning noticed that the second bulb we've put in our bedroom light (and we've only lived in this place for two years) is getting dim and needs to be replaced.

I've settled for switching to laptops and extreme low power systems for most of our household computing needs.

[elgatocurioso.livejournal.com]

I actually dropped one of those CFC bulbs myself and didn't think anything about picking it up with my hands when cleaning it. With all the mercury hype I was actually starting to get a little worried. It's good to know that I'm not all poisoned after all.

But I have always wondered what's in a CFC bulb? I'm half of the opinion that the cost to dispose of one properly must cost way more than that of an incandescent bulb.

[elgatocurioso.livejournal.com]

By CFCs I mean CFLs, of course.

Uh, it still says "grams" in paragraph 4

[ideaphile.livejournal.com]

Four grams of mercury per socket, yeah, that caught my attention. But milligrams is correct.

Maybe I'm just unlucky, but the CFLs I have installed in my house-- all the high-use locations where CFLs are suitable-- only seem to last about twice as long as the old incandescents. I don't know if that's long enough to pay off the higher up-front cost.

. png

Re: Uh, it still says "grams" in paragraph 4

[elgatocurioso.livejournal.com]

I've bought about 10 over the past 2 years and even put some in high-use areas (such as outdoors and entryways) and never had one burn out yet. The only one I've ever lost is one I dropped when trying to screw it in. You might have a wiring problem.