My brain asplodes!
Jun. 6th, 2006 09:39 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
elfsI've been trying to figure out The Monty Hall Paradox. So far, the Bayes Theorem explanation holds the most weight and makes the most sense, but moving out of the purely mathematical aspects of Bayesian math to the real world makes my brain asplode.
There's a lovely simulator with tallies on-line as well.
There's a lovely simulator with tallies on-line as well.
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no subject
Date: 2006-06-08 01:13 am (UTC)I think what's confusing people is the fact that we're talking about the initial choice here. If you have the intention of switching on the second choice then the first choice has a 2/3 probability of winning.
However, most people are inclined to think "that's in the past" and focus only on the second choice which, by itself, does have a probability of 1 in 2.