My brain asplodes!

[elfs]

I've been trying to figure out The Monty Hall Paradox. So far, the Bayes Theorem explanation holds the most weight and makes the most sense, but moving out of the purely mathematical aspects of Bayesian math to the real world makes my brain asplode.

There's a lovely simulator with tallies on-line as well.

Comments

[elfs.livejournal.com]

Oh, I got it after reading the Baysian equation. That made sense to me and I was able to agree that the equation adequately maps the problem. It's just not intuitively obvious at first why the door opening is a red herring.

[whipartist.livejournal.com]

The door opening is a red herring because Monty has knowledge. If he didn't, and just chose a door randomly, it would change the equation.

[whipartist.livejournal.com]

BTW, was this triggered by my comment from the other day?

[elfs.livejournal.com]

Yeah, it was.