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[personal profile] elfs
Ars Technica has an awesome takedown of the methodology, leading to the conclusion that the study is "suggestive" but hardly definitive. I have to agree with the reporter that the photo of the lab students looking "sciency" was indeed awesome, however.

I'm reminded of this comic, only backward.

Date: 2010-03-27 01:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] http://users.livejournal.com/_candide_/
Well, Penicillin was more serendipity. ^_^

Perpetual motion had to be impossible, or Conservation of Energy went out the window. Since everything in physics from Newton onward kinda needs Conservation of Energy (and Momentum), it was a given early on that perpetual motion wouldn't work. (Unless there's no friction, which is a different ball of wax. Oh, and Special Relativity pulled 3 conservation laws into a single Conservation of Matter-Energy/Energy-Momentum.)

Everything else fits into my, "Look at nature. Try to unify things into a common model. Then whack the bajeezus out of the model to try and break it." ^_^

My, "95% or better," statement more applies to statistical data. You can take a dataset containing nothing of points on a circle and fit a line to it that has 70% correlation to that data. This is just one reason why the bar is pretty high when correlating statistical data to a model. When the model is nonlinear, the idea of a "percent correlation" gets tricky; sometimes 95% can be too low.

And, really, percent-correlation is just a convenient number that says, "How much does this data look like noise?" The closer to 0%, the more the data looks like it's purely (Gaussian) random.

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Elf Sternberg

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