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elfsI can't help but wonder if there's a factor missing from The Drake Equation, or if not a factor, at the very least a multiplier that makes the fc (fraction of civilizations that actually go on to release detectable signals) factor far smaller than anyone might anticipate.
The Drake Equation is a mathematical formula for "the number of civilizations that might arise in our galaxy with which communication might be possible." Arguments have risen over how each factor should be calculated: the rate of star formation, the average number of planets that can support life, the fraction that develop life, those that go on to be intelligent, and those that might release signals, and how long those civilizations might persist, for examples.
I've proposed in the past that the "signals/duration" part of the equation needs to be rethought: as we shift to ever more esoteric means of exploiting bandwidth, our detectable signals evolve into "noise" for anyone except ourselves, as we have the codecs necessary. It becomes even more noisy and less intelligible as coding/decoding becomes inextricably bound to cryptography and authentication.
But one other issue that's recently come to mind is this: the persistence of a civilization that can release useful signals is directly related to the availability of a local, easily exploited source of high-density energy.
For millions of years, our planet has banked somewhere between two and ten yottajoules (I enjoyed calculating that we used approximately 11.5 zettajoules of energy last year) of absorbed and produced energy in the form of oil and other natural gas sources. We have a pretty narrow window in which to bootstrap ourself into a post-petroleum civilization, and we've been very lucky to have that much easily exploitable energy at hand. We can only hope that our civilization gets its act together and achieves a post-petroluem existence without falling backward economically, with all the pain and terror that would ensue if we did.
I can't help but assume that the fc is much, much smaller than previously thought; it's not just about reaching civilization and not blowing yourselves up: it's about having resources that let you get post-agricultural at all.
The Drake Equation is a mathematical formula for "the number of civilizations that might arise in our galaxy with which communication might be possible." Arguments have risen over how each factor should be calculated: the rate of star formation, the average number of planets that can support life, the fraction that develop life, those that go on to be intelligent, and those that might release signals, and how long those civilizations might persist, for examples.
I've proposed in the past that the "signals/duration" part of the equation needs to be rethought: as we shift to ever more esoteric means of exploiting bandwidth, our detectable signals evolve into "noise" for anyone except ourselves, as we have the codecs necessary. It becomes even more noisy and less intelligible as coding/decoding becomes inextricably bound to cryptography and authentication.
But one other issue that's recently come to mind is this: the persistence of a civilization that can release useful signals is directly related to the availability of a local, easily exploited source of high-density energy.
For millions of years, our planet has banked somewhere between two and ten yottajoules (I enjoyed calculating that we used approximately 11.5 zettajoules of energy last year) of absorbed and produced energy in the form of oil and other natural gas sources. We have a pretty narrow window in which to bootstrap ourself into a post-petroleum civilization, and we've been very lucky to have that much easily exploitable energy at hand. We can only hope that our civilization gets its act together and achieves a post-petroluem existence without falling backward economically, with all the pain and terror that would ensue if we did.
I can't help but assume that the fc is much, much smaller than previously thought; it's not just about reaching civilization and not blowing yourselves up: it's about having resources that let you get post-agricultural at all.
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Date: 2008-08-01 11:01 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-08-01 11:57 pm (UTC)"A lot less," sure. But the energy, time and risk are also "a lot less" when you are a program running on a computer, can control your own perception of time by altering your clock rate, and are able to make backups and duplicates of your own personality. And you'd think that at least some of the uploaded people would recollect that their own long-term survival depends on extending their civilization's base of support out as wide as possible?