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elfsPeter challenged me in my post about parties and economic outcomes: So what exactly is your theory to explain how any of these presidents deserve any credit OR blame for what happened to the economy during their terms in office?
I don't have one. I'm not sure I need one at this time.
Looking through the economics boards discussing the Dunne & Henwood paper, among the noise I see a large number of very talented trained economists wrestling with this very question. Some dismiss it, or invert the relationship, or point out that both are consequential on other factors emerging from the marketplace. Others embrace it and are trying to explain it. I'll wait and see.
Your question reminded me of another longitudinal study from another world: parenting. There have long been huge studies of what makes a successful parent, and what those parents do to have children reach adulthood healthy, whole, and ready to take on the world, as opposed to those parents whose children spiral down into poverty and self-destruction. Two classic outcomes were "Have a lot of books in the home," and "Have at least three sit-down dinners every week with your children." The problem with these outcomes is that, when they were introduced into families that previouly had not been doing them, there was little discernable change in their children's outcome. (No meaningful change at all for the books; a small uptick for meals, but nothing close to the outcomes for families that were already doing so naturally.)
The sad conclusion many social scientists have reached is that succesful parenting is not a matter of what you do, it is a matter of who you are. Sit-down meals and bookshelf-lined walls are merely indicators of other, nebulous values those parents have. Those values drive a parent's daily actions and reactions. They become thousands of little gestures, meaningful acts, and attentive moments that, over the child's formative years, add up to "being a successful parent." If you don't have those values then making the gross gestures isn't going to do a whole lot.
I suspect therefore that the answer lies in the "thousand small levers" theory of administration. It isn't a few grand things that the Dems do or the Reps fail to do that makes the Dems seemingly more successful at running our economy than the Reps. It's that the Democratic administrations have had values different from those of Republican administrations, and that the acts of the executive and his administration that flow from those values overall have contributed to more robust economies.
I do know this: looking at the objective data, and going on my own experiences, if I want to maximize my economic well-being, if I want to act in my own selfish best interests, I would not vote for a Republican for president.
I don't have one. I'm not sure I need one at this time.
Looking through the economics boards discussing the Dunne & Henwood paper, among the noise I see a large number of very talented trained economists wrestling with this very question. Some dismiss it, or invert the relationship, or point out that both are consequential on other factors emerging from the marketplace. Others embrace it and are trying to explain it. I'll wait and see.
Your question reminded me of another longitudinal study from another world: parenting. There have long been huge studies of what makes a successful parent, and what those parents do to have children reach adulthood healthy, whole, and ready to take on the world, as opposed to those parents whose children spiral down into poverty and self-destruction. Two classic outcomes were "Have a lot of books in the home," and "Have at least three sit-down dinners every week with your children." The problem with these outcomes is that, when they were introduced into families that previouly had not been doing them, there was little discernable change in their children's outcome. (No meaningful change at all for the books; a small uptick for meals, but nothing close to the outcomes for families that were already doing so naturally.)
The sad conclusion many social scientists have reached is that succesful parenting is not a matter of what you do, it is a matter of who you are. Sit-down meals and bookshelf-lined walls are merely indicators of other, nebulous values those parents have. Those values drive a parent's daily actions and reactions. They become thousands of little gestures, meaningful acts, and attentive moments that, over the child's formative years, add up to "being a successful parent." If you don't have those values then making the gross gestures isn't going to do a whole lot.
I suspect therefore that the answer lies in the "thousand small levers" theory of administration. It isn't a few grand things that the Dems do or the Reps fail to do that makes the Dems seemingly more successful at running our economy than the Reps. It's that the Democratic administrations have had values different from those of Republican administrations, and that the acts of the executive and his administration that flow from those values overall have contributed to more robust economies.
I do know this: looking at the objective data, and going on my own experiences, if I want to maximize my economic well-being, if I want to act in my own selfish best interests, I would not vote for a Republican for president.
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Re: What I remember - Part2
Date: 2008-07-15 07:56 pm (UTC)I remember fear. Fear of loosing our jobs (which we did). Fear of loosing our home (which we would have if it hadn't been for the generosity of Lee's parents).
I remember my mother taking early retirement because the hospital was assigning her (an LPN) to ICU where she was supposed to handle 4 patients by herself at the same time. The rule of thumb for an ICU unit is that there is a RN for each patient. My mother was being expected to perform duties she was not qualified to perform in a situation where a small mistake could mean the death of a patient.
I remember one of my brothers loosing everything, including his family, and having to move in with my parents.
I remember many of my brothers' friends (all of who had collage degrees) having to get jobs installing septic tanks, working at a quarry cutting stone, working for a utility company installing cable, etc.
I remember a friend of Lee's who is/was a graphic designer. He'd won an Emmy for some of his work. Now he was working as a security guard in a mall.
I finally managed to get a job just as my unemployment insurance ran out due to the generosity of an old boss.
And yet more fear as that business failed and folded before my eyes. One day the doors just closed. I never was able to get some personal items I still had at my desk nor was I every able to get all of the back pay they owed me.
I remember applying for jobs at grocery stores and gas stations (I had experience from my high school and collage days) and being rejected because "You'll just leave as soon as you find something better".
I remember working at a Jiffy Lube helping change oil in cars so I could bring in some kind of income.
I remember Lee and I struggling with major depression, loss of ego and self worth. This is a huge hole we are struggling to escape even now.
Lee and I finally got jobs in the family business.
This was pretty much a nightmare and hurt our fragile mental and emotional states but it brought in money so we could survive. It was also the first time we had health insurance in 6 years.
Now Lee's parents were business owners. I know they did well in the 90s. They were able to build a 3 story home on the waterfront and they were able to expand their business a lot in that time.
Now, they are multi millionaires. They own 3 homes, two waterfront and one in an exclusive area in Arizona which has a second fully equipped guest house. They also own a yacht with 2 full bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, kitchen, living area, large screen TV, etc.
I don't begrudge them their success but I can't help but feel a little frustrated. All of the people I mentioned are good people. They work hard, take pride in their work and always do the best they can.
So why is it they suffer so much while my in-laws and their peers seem to wallow in success and rewards?