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In my last post, I discussed Microsoft's plans with respect to the post-Longhorn development cycle. I think it's important to look beyond that moment when Singularity bears fruit and look at the ten year plan.

Microsoft is putting a lot of money into the X-Box, and the X-Box has a hard drive, networking capability, and even high-definition multimedia capability. I think it should be obvious what life is going to be like in Microsoft's 2010.

Most families on the Internet will use MS's X-Box for all of their interneting. They won't need much more. They may rent their .net Office on a daily or hourly basis, putting it away when they don't need it. They'll play games, do IM, download music and movies, and do everything they want to that doesn't demand real creativity with their X-Box.

Those who still have "general purpose" boxes will come under more and more scrutiny. The most commonplace question will be "Why do you need a PC?" And the most common assumption will be, "Because you pirate content."

And then the U.S. will start to license PCs. I mean, it makes sense: given that all of the "legitimate" uses for a PC are covered under the X-Box Singularity 2010 utility, there will be only two reasons for having a PC: "illegitimate" purpose, and development. And it will finally be time for states to create a licensing program for developers and for the platforms on which they develop. France has already started down this road: it will soon be illegal to publish source code in France, because if you know how the software works, you can circumvent the market plan-preserving code of existing business.

More and more, Richard Stallman's "Freedom to Read" is looking prophetic. Enjoy your future, citizen.

Or else.
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Elf Sternberg

May 2025

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