Elf Sternberg

I think there's a natural balance/ebb-and-flow to the political stage, its always easier to energize the people who actually will volunteer, send $$$, man call centers, etc. when out of power than when in. Once a party is in, there's a natural "whew! well, we got Our Guys in there, things will be OK, I can move on to something else" reaction, whereas I think the party that's on the outside looking in can say "Did you see what THEY did? It's outrageous! Are you going to join us to stop THAT?" One's a lot more energizing than the other.

Side issue: I think the Tea Party will probably skew heavily GOP in '10, but after that its anyone's guess. Their bloodline is more in populist movements like Perot's than in either party, and they're probably going to be against the ruling party no matter who is in control. No surprise: they are a protest party at this point, they haven't had to grow into anything else yet.